@Article{BezerraVABTCGAA:2022:ReGlSS,
               author = "Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva and Von Randow, Celso and Assis, 
                         Talita Oliveira and Bezerra, Karine Rocha Aguiar and Tejada Pinel, 
                         Graciela and Castro, Aline Anderson de and Gomes, Diego Melo de 
                         Paula and Avancini, Rodrigo and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "New land-use change scenarios for Brazil: Refining global SSPs 
                         with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model",
              journal = "PLoS One",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "17",
               number = "4",
                pages = "e0256052",
                month = "Apr.",
             abstract = "The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly 
                         due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical 
                         for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the 
                         richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the 
                         interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the 
                         main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local 
                         institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to 
                         develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., 
                         GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of 
                         agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic 
                         conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, 
                         agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and 
                         other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change 
                         scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global 
                         structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative 
                         Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change 
                         research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with 
                         SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 
                         (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality 
                         scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME 
                         spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and 
                         the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in 
                         water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and 
                         institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created 
                         spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following 
                         classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, 
                         agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The 
                         results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used 
                         regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global 
                         analysis.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0256052",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256052",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "journal.pone.0256052.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}